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Understanding the recruitment dynamics of invertebrates in kelp forests is critical to informing climate-ready restoration. Here we examine abalone and sea urchin recruitment (3–20 mm in size) patterns in northern California across a period of drastic change. Annual surveys were conducted before, during and after the MHW (2014–2016), the loss of a major predatory sea star (2012–2016) and the collapse of a bull kelp forest in 2014. Divers surveyed artificial reef recruitment modules (n = 12) over 20 years in an area that once supported dense bull kelp, Nereocystis leutkeana, forests and the world's largest recreational abalone fishery. From 2016 to 2022, we tracked the decline of red abalone, Haliotis rufescens, recruitment and the rise of purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, recruitment. Adult densities of purple sea urchins increased as did newly settled sea urchins (<3 mm), while adult and newly settled red abalone declined. Eight years after the kelp forest collapse, red abalone recruitment remained low and sea urchin recruitment continued to increase. Recruitment patterns can inform both abalone restoration targets and sea urchin dynamics as part of a more holistic kelp forest recovery plan that is responsive to climate change drivers. 

Abstract Projections for population viability under climate change are often made using estimates of thermal lethal thresholds. These estimates vary across life history stages and can be valuable for explaining or forecasting shifts in population viability. However, sublethal temperatures can also depress vital rates and shape fluctuations in the reproductive viability of populations. For example, heatwaves may suppress reproduction, leading to recruitment failure before lethal temperatures are reached. Despite a growing awareness of this issue, tying sublethal effects to observed recruitment failure remains a challenge especially in marine environments. We experimentally show that sublethal suppression of female gametogenesis by marine heatwaves can partially explain historical collapses in urchin recruitment. These responses differ by sex but are similar between animals from warmer or cooler regions of their range. Overall, we show sublethal thermal sensitivities of reproduction can narrow the thermal envelope for population viability compared to predictions from lethal limits. 

Marine ecosystems are vulnerable to climate driven events such as marine heatwaves yet we have a poor understanding of whether they will collapse or recover. Kelp forests are known to be susceptible, and there has been a rise in sea urchin barrens around the world. When temperatures increase so do physiological demands while food resources decline, tightening metabolic constraints. In this case study, we examine red abalone ( Haliotis rufescens ) looking at sublethal impacts and their prospects for recovery within kelp forests that have shifted to sea urchin barrens. Abalone are a recreationally fished species that once thrived in northern California’s bull kelp forests but have recently suffered mass mortalities since the 2014–2016 marine heatwave. Quantitative data exist on the health and reproduction of abalone both prior to and after the collapse. The survivors of the mass mortality show a 2-year lag in body and gonad condition indices. After the lag, body and gonad indexes decreased substantially, as did the relationship between shell length and body weight. Production of mature eggs per female declined by 99% ( p < 0.001), and the number of eggs per gram of female body weight (2,984/g) declined to near zero (9/g). The number of males with sperm was reduced by 33%, and the sperm abundance score was reduced by 28% ( p = 0.414). We observed that these reductions were for mature eggs and sperm while immature eggs and spermatids were still present in large numbers. In the lab, after reintroduction of kelp, weight gains were quickly lost following a second starvation period. This example illustrates how climate-driven declines in foundation species can suppress recovery of the system by impacting body condition and future reproduction of surviving individuals. Given the poor reproductive potential of the remaining abalone in northern California, coupled with ongoing mortality and low kelp abundances, we discuss the need to maintain the fishing moratorium and implement active abalone restoration measures. For fished species, such as abalone, this additional hurdle to recovery imposed by changes in climate is critical to understand and incorporate into resource management and restoration. 

Abstract Climate change is responsible for increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs). Within eastern boundary current systems, MHWs have profound impacts on temperature-nutrient dynamics that drive primary productivity. Bull kelp ( Nereocystis luetkeana ) forests, a vital nearshore habitat, experienced unprecedented losses along 350 km of coastline in northern California beginning in 2014 and continuing through 2019. These losses have had devastating consequences to northern California communities, economies, and fisheries. Using a suite of in situ and satellite-derived data, we demonstrate that the abrupt ecosystem shift initiated by a multi-year MHW was preceded by declines in keystone predator population densities. We show strong evidence that northern California kelp forests, while temporally dynamic, were historically resilient to fluctuating environmental conditions, even in the absence of key top predators, but that a series of coupled environmental and biological shifts between 2014 and 2016 resulted in the formation of a persistent, altered ecosystem state with low primary productivity. Based on our findings, we recommend the implementation of ecosystem-based and adaptive management strategies, such as (1) monitoring the status of key ecosystem attributes: kelp distribution and abundance, and densities of sea urchins and their predators, (2) developing management responses to threshold levels of these attributes, and (3) creating quantitative restoration suitability indices for informing kelp restoration efforts. 

Abstract Declining oxygen is one of the most drastic changes in the ocean, and this trend is expected to worsen under future climate change scenarios. Spatial variability in dissolved oxygen dynamics and hypoxia exposures can drive differences in vulnerabilities of coastal ecosystems and resources, but documentation of variability at regional scales is rare in open-coast systems. Using a regional collaborative network of dissolved oxygen and temperature sensors maintained by scientists and fishing cooperatives from California, USA, and Baja California, Mexico, we characterize spatial and temporal variability in dissolved oxygen and seawater temperature dynamics in kelp forest ecosystems across 13° of latitude in the productive California Current upwelling system. We find distinct latitudinal patterns of hypoxia exposure and evidence for upwelling and respiration as regional drivers of oxygen dynamics, as well as more localized effects. This regional and small-scale spatial variability in dissolved oxygen dynamics supports the use of adaptive management at local scales, and highlights the value of collaborative, large-scale coastal monitoring networks for informing effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities and fisheries in a changing climate.